Caribou Habitat Model for CLAWR

This project developed a habitat prediction model for caribou in and around the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range (CLAWR) using Bayesian Belief Networks and detailed field reconnaissance. The study focused on understanding how disturbance patterns, historical fires, habitat conditions, predator–prey dynamics, and landscape recovery influence the Cold Lake caribou herd. Researchers aimed to generate fine-resolution estimates of habitat quality for caribou and primary prey, and to map the distribution of key resources such as terrestrial lichens. The monitoring program was designed to support adaptive management by evaluating the effectiveness of linear feature deactivation and other land-use decisions. The project also provided indicators to inform provincial recovery planning and to help identify spatial priorities for conservation. Overall, the work laid the foundation for a long-term, strategic approach to caribou and habitat management within the CLAWR.

The study found that caribou habitat quality is generally high across the CLAWR but lower in the southern and western portions, suggesting that development should preferentially expand in those areas while restoration should focus on the north and east. Model accuracy was limited by available ecological data, and improvements such as LiDAR-derived elevation models, mapped soil moisture, and refined ecosite data would increase predictive power. Researchers recommended validating the SAGD winter habitat model through additional ground checks, telemetry flights, and tracking studies to ensure confidence in its use for decision-making. If model precision cannot be improved, they advised shifting to an Ecological Land Classification approach or acquiring LiDAR for broader spatial coverage. The study emphasized that habitat modeling is only one part of a complex management picture and that understanding the mechanisms behind caribou decline—such as forage limitation, displacement, predator encounters, and prey increases—is essential for designing effective mitigation. Overall, they recommended integrating improved spatial data, expanded monitoring of caribou and predators, and scenario-based planning to guide deactivation, development amendments, and long-term habitat management.