Local Ecological Footprint Tool

The aim of this study was to determine potential ecological impact of different oil extraction development scenarios in Alberta. The region under investigation was a rectangular area approximately 190 x 220 km south of the city of Fort McMurray. The objective was to assess ecological impact associated with three alternative development scenarios: (1) increased production until 2030, then no new development; (2) increased production until 2030, then this level maintained; and (3) increased production until 2030, then continued development. Each scenario had four time steps: (1) current, (2) 10 years, (3) 20 years, and (4) 50 years. Landscape Ecological Assessment and Planning (LEAP) process data on land use and it’s impact on land cover and tree species distributions was provided by Silvacom and used to assess ecological impact of the different land use scenarios using the web-based Local Ecological Footprinting Tool (LEFT). This tool, developed by the Biodiversity Institute at Oxford in conjunction with Statoil, collates high quality, globally consistent datasets and modelling to calculate five measures of ecological value across landscapes: (1) biodiversity, (2) vulnerability, (3) fragmentation, (4) connectivity, and (5) resilience. Measures are then aggregated into a final map of summary ecological value for the area.

Results from the LEFT output indicate that in scenarios 1 and 2 there will be a loss of ecological value during the project period, but with recovery to initial levels of ecological value by the end of the planning period at time 50. In contrast, scenario 3 is associated with a decline in ecological value in the study area and carries the highest ecological risk. Scenario 2 carries the least ecological risk in the long term.