Cumulative Effects of In Situ Projects on Biodiversity

This project developed and tested a new method to assess cumulative effects on biodiversity in northeast Alberta using data from the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute and expert sources on birds. The method integrates empirical modeling, mapping, and GIS techniques to evaluate current human footprint impacts and predict future cumulative effects on species, species groups, and overall biodiversity. It focuses on a suite of biodiversity indicators, including caribou, black-throated green warbler, old forest birds, forest plants, and weedy plants, while other environmental aspects were beyond the current scope. The approach emphasizes spatially-explicit, scientifically robust assessment, providing traceable, repeatable, and regionally-consistent outputs. The project also explores scaling from subregional to regional levels to support integrated land-use planning and collaborative management.

The new method demonstrated that cumulative effects vary by species and habitat type, with caribou and specialist species showing the highest vulnerability, while generalist species and overall biodiversity remained largely intact under current conditions. Human footprint is projected to increase over the next 25–50 years, resulting in further declines in suitable habitat, particularly for caribou and old forest birds. Spatial mapping highlighted areas where development has already had the greatest impact and where mitigation or reclamation could be most effective. The method facilitates collaboration among developers, provides a single, consistent source of cumulative effects information, and reduces duplication of effort. Long-term monitoring is required to validate predictions and adaptively improve the assessment and management of cumulative effects on biodiversity.